Project Timeline 2005–2010

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Scenario Planning as a Discipline

Scenario planning is a strategic planing method used for flexible long-term plans. Scenario planning involves systems thinking in its recognition that many factors may combine in complex ways to create surprising futures. Scenario planning trusts that narrative is one way to put people into a relationship with the dynamics in complexity. See also, ‘Conversation’.

Title & Details


Forum held Thursday, 27 November 2008 at SCA, Sydney University, Callan Park.


  • Lesley Osborne, ACMA (LO)
  • Christian Bernecker (CB)
  • David Court (DC)
  • Michael Frankel MF)
  • Ian Gardiner (IG)
  • Malcolm Smith (MS)
  • Beth Fair (BF)
  • Rafael Pustkowski (RP)
  • Tania Chambers, NSWFTO (TC)
  • Guy Gadney, PBL Digital (GG)
  • Ross Gibson, Research Leader (UTS)(CI)(RG)
  • Philip Bell,  Research Leader (UNSW (CI)(PB)
  • Andy Lloyd James,  Partner

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Debate and Understanding


1.1. Demography is destiny
1.2. Shift from content to consumer as King
The other key point to make is that there are two possible but paradoxical implications for storytelling to multiple screen experience. (opposite ends of a spectrum you might say) One is that the screen is just the screen and the ability to port material …(continue reading)

This is the Research Mind Map produced in 2007. See also the outline of key headings used in this mindmap.

May 2007 Mindmap (Download PDF)

Mission of Project: To develop a strategic set of conversations around the future of television.

Key Concepts and Points of Difference for OTB

  • Long-ish duration.
  • Insider Experts. Outsider Experts. Complementarity.
  • Developing narrative adeptness rather than making prophecies.
  • Distinguishing scenarios from narratives.
  • Quickness and profusion of narratives.
  • Recursive process: Scenario Formation (outsider experts) — Narration (insider experts) — Review and

…(continue reading)

New Formulation of OTB — Morphology – Narrative — Recursion

1. Hugh’s summation of the overall aim of the project:

To develop a strategic set of conversations around the future of television.

This summation describes an approach that caters to the needs of the industry folks and of the academics. For industry, this approach gives the participants nimbleness, …(continue reading)

The standard scenario planning ‘workflow’ still applies. It is easily accommodated within the ‘schedule’ that we offered the ARC. i.e:

  • Step 1 — brainstorm and decide on the major drivers in the system/environment. Discuss with all industry participants.
  • Step 2 — cluster the factors and drivers within a patterned/viable but relatively loose framework. Discuss with all industry participants.
  • Step

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Summary of Meeting (11-1-07)

Place: University of Technology Sydney (UTS)
People: Ross Gibson , Phillip Bell, Andy Lloyd-James, Ben Goldsmith, Hugh Pattinson, Annmarie Chandler

1. Strategy/Schedule:

Refer to stages in ARC document.
Deliverables (currently)
1. Stage 2 should take 6 months
Interactive mindmap and project analysis and collaboration tools.
2nd round interviews _ Andy to perform with input from
Phillip …(continue reading)

Scenario introduction

As part of the Seeding Fund application, we undertook to deliver a trial scenario. This document includes the base elements in draft form.
The genuinely is a trial only: proper scenarios cannot be written until the full OTB project has been followed through. The real purpose of this trial draft is to give participants some sense of what …(continue reading)

Several pages of writing on “The Matrix Approach” from Kees Van der Heijden’s 2005 book Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation
Scenario Development – The Matrix Approach (Download PDF)