Project Timeline 2005–2010

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‘Conversation’ is the basis of scenario planning. Scenario planning is not only about generatating predictive narratives, it is ‘the art of strategic conversation.’ ‘Conversation’, then, refers to all the banter and speculation and discourse and imaginative stretching that happens before any stories get generated. It’s a structured back-and-forth around some vaguely specified topic, loose enough for the conversation to veer off into surprising eddies.

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Title & Details


Participant: Michael Frankel (MF)
Organisation: Frankel Lawyers
OTB team: Annmarie Chandler, Philip Bell

  • Discussed the revisions to the dossier
  • MF suggests a session with Screen Australia would be useful. Suggests Megan McMurchy and he will identify a younger producer too as thinks it would be good to get fresh insights.
  • Discuss Matrix MF comments on an “interactive” he and

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Participant: Lesley Osborne  (LO)
Organisation: ACMA
OTB team: Annmarie Chandler, Ben Goldsmith, and Ross Gibson

  • Discussed the revisions to the dossier with Lesley
  • Discuss reponses from OZCO workshop
  • LO suggests the driver “governance” is a “dependent variable” to all the others
    (advocates the approach to governance needs to be ‘what’s needed for the situation’, rather than imposed from above.

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A brief report summarising activities since the forum at the end of 2008 before I head off for a year in Italy (at least that’s the plan!)   I will still be working on the project but the main activities will continue in my absence thanks to the efforts of the main team.
We have sought and received feedback from …(continue reading)

Present: Ross Gibson, Andy Lloyd James, Philip Bell, Hugh Pattinson, Carolyn McKay, Annmarie Chandler, Ben Goldsmith (via shaky Skype)

Revisions to Matrix

There was general agreement with the thrust to the revisions to the Matrix so far.
This will proceed with a review of the quadrants and matrices for the 6 key drivers, as well as the overview matrix.

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    Quadrant 1 (Closed/Controlled)

    This quadrant is dominated by external influences and marked by stringent control in almost every aspect. The economic downturn starting in 2008 lasted for some years leaving a very changed world.
    US efforts to forestall greater economic crises left it massively reduced in its financial (and to some extent moral) capacity to act as the world policeman, …(continue reading)

    PARTICIPATION here and in matrices relating to each of the key drivers is the extent to which someone watching television content can do more than just watch it: Participation could also be the extent to which viewsers allow information to be collected about them for interactive advertising or content suggestions.
    Participation is about the extent to which people participate in …(continue reading)

    The “matrix” presented for consideration is a tool for identifying and ranking issues/things by importance and uncertainty. It is input to produce the two issues that will become the axes of a final matrix in which the final scenarios are developed.
    Hopefully the two issues selected will be able to be each expressed as lines of continuity with polar opposite …(continue reading)

    Before we meet next week, I’d be really grateful if you would give some thought to the illustration below. It’s a means of focusing our thinking from the interview-summary and the stories which you have read.
    Our task next week is to try and outline one or more matrix for the final scenarios. The axes need to be what, after …(continue reading)

    NOTE how Ben asks what are the uses of TV and who are the various sectors for whom it is useful.
    Ben’s axes = access (infrastructure) & involvement (peoples’ participation)
    Using ALJ’s axes … … RG feels comfortable because RG can tell two stories — 1. USA & UK hang on to IP ownership even though India and Jamaica are …(continue reading)

    Top Right:

    • Continuing ‘fragmentation’ in media ‘channels’,
    • More varied use of ‘receiver technologies’
    • Policy: favouring ‘networks’; Local ‘content’.
    • Demographics:  Increasing number of households with smaller numbers in each.
    • Sport and information ‘live’ or ‘current’ ‘broadcasts stable or increase.
    • Increasing competition for shrinking (in real terms) advertising revenue.
    • Market for ‘broadcasting’ not sustained
    • Continuation of ABC (se policy).
    • Increased ‘time-shifting’

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