Project Timeline 2005–2010

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Debate and Understanding

Consumers:

1.1. Demography is destiny

1.2. Shift from content to consumer as King

The other key point to make is that there are two possible but paradoxical implications for storytelling to multiple screen experience. (opposite ends of a spectrum you might say) One is that the screen is just the screen and the ability to port material from one to another will be a given and so all content will need to work on all devices, as I transfer the show I’m watching on to my portable device and then onto my friends home movie screen or the in-car system etc. The opposite point is that the screen defines the usage moment and the viewer’s relationship with the content: one a social, one a private experience; one an immersive, one a snack break/ content snapshot. Content will need to respond to these different environments with different and relevant content and structures depending on the viewer location and mindset. Understanding these dichotomies and the ways in which they play out is what scenario planning is all about!

1.3. Projected 7 fold increase in media offerings

1.4. Multi-casting

1.5. Games as formative – kids see no difference in screens –lifelong impact on thought process

1.6. Active/passive consumer

The take-up of broadband Internet connections by Australian households almost doubled in the year to June 2006, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures released today.

About half (2.3 million) of all households with Internet had broadband access in 2005-06.

Overall, 34% of all households in metropolitan areas were connected to broadband, compared with 19% of all households in non-metropolitan areas.

The most popular (83%) broadband connection used by households was Digital Subscriber Line (DSL).

Overall, the proportion of households with home Internet access rose to 60% in 2005-06 (from 56% in 2004-05).

The main reasons given by households without home Internet access in 2005-06, were “No use for the Internet” (24%), followed by “Lack of interest in Internet” (23%) and “Costs are too high” (19%).

Most children use computers and the Internet

The majority (92%) of children aged 5-14 years used a computer and close to two-thirds (65%) accessed the Internet during the reference period, according to an ABS survey on Children’s Participation in Cultural and Leisure Activities 2006.

The use of a computer or accessing the Internet for school or educational activities was the most common activity, reported respectively by 79% and 82% children. The most common Internet sites accessed by children for school or educational activities or leisure related to “Technology and science” (39%).

1.7. Serious games

1.8. 2-D participation

1.9. Personalisation (wild)

1.10. Privacy/Security

1.11. Immersion

1.12. Brand

Brand managers are fusing entertainment and branding content both to grab the attention of ad-skippers and toreshape our emotional bonds with brands. Here’s former Coca-Cola CEO Steven Heyer speaking at a gathering of advertising and entertainment industry insiders last year: “We will use a diverse array of entertainment assets to break into people’s hearts and minds. In that order. We’re moving to ideas that elicit emotion and create connections. And this speeds the convergence of Madison and Vine. Because the ideas which have always sat at the heart of the stories you’ve told and the content you’ve sold… whether movies or music or television… are no longer just intellectual property, they’re emotional capital.” Or here’s Kevin Roberts, the CEO Worldwide of Saatchi & Saatchi, talking about what he calls “lovemarks” (brands that inspire cult followings):

the emotions are a serious opportunity to get in touch with consumers. And best of all, emotion is an unlimited resource. It’s always there, waiting to be tapped with new ideas, new inspirations, and new experiences.

Industry researchers are discovering that the most valuable viewers may be loyals (or what we call fans). For most shows, less than 5 percent of all viewers regard the program to be a favorite. For some shows (and these including many cult and reality television programs), the numbers may reach 40 or 50 percent of viewers. Loyals are significantly more apt to watch the entire show each week, seek out additional information, watch advertisements, recall brands, and talk about them with others. Marketers, then, are seeking programs which will generate high concentrations of loyal viewers, even if those programs do not necessarily enjoy high ratings overall. And networks are seeking to slow the erosion of their own viewership to cable competitors or digital media. Reality shows may be one of the few remaining forms of
appointment-based television.

Brand loyalty is the holy grail of affective economics because of what economists call the 80/20 rule: for most consumer products, 80 percent of purchases are made by 20 percent of their consumer base. A generation of cultural and media scholars had equated the active spectator with audience resistance, but now, corporate America is embracing audience activity as the golden gateway into more reliable patterns of consumption.

Marketing researchers speak about “brand communities,” trying to better understand why some groups of consumers form intense bonds with the product and through the product, with fellow consumers. These ethnographers research specific groups of highly committed consumers (such as Harley-Davidson riders, Apple computer users, or Saturn drivers) or what they call “brandfests,” social events (either commercially sponsored or grassroots) that pull together large numbers of consumers. As these brand communities move online, members are able to sustain their connections over long periods and thus to intensify the role the community plays in their purchasing decisions. Companies seek to move more casual consumers towards links with these brand communities and count on what they call “inspirational consumers,” in effect, fans of brands, to advocate on their behalf. Advertisers are drawn towards the audience participation surrounding reality programs because they can help fuel the growth of online brand communities.

[link to AOL report and other info]

1.13. Consumers as Content – Reality TV-Blogs- Gaming-Social Space- Avatars- Immersion

1.14. Consumers as Creators- Forums-Blogs and Blog branding-Entrance for youth-Avatars- Networks/Disaggregation-Different media for all 3 consumer types-Democratisation/Limitation-Microdonations.

Connectivity and Capacity:

2.1. Content separation from time and platform

2.2. Competition/Regulation

2.3. Analog switch off

2.4. Artificial Intelligence

2.5. Transformative effects

2.6. Capacity=real issue

2.7. Microbilling= real issue

Advertising:

Broadband is changing the dynamics of ad business in the US: Nielsen

Indiantelevision.com Team, (25 January 2007 6:00 pm)

MUMBAI: Nielsen Analytics in the US has released a new report revealing that advertisers and television programmers are finding new and more lucrative advertising opportunities with broadband video. The study has also determined that the use of broadband video actually extends the reach of traditional TV, and that broadband consumers are young, affluent, highly educated, and tend to have high speed web access virtually 24/7, making it an integral part of their lifestyle.

The study, Whatever, Whenever, Wherever: How Broadband is Redefining the Economics of Television is authored by Nielsen Analytics head Larry Gerbrandt and completed in partnership with Scarborough Research. He says:

By researching controlled broadband access, this study concludes that programmers have the opportunity to create new revenue models to benefit content owners and their affiliated stations. Such ad-supported models are uniquely adaptable to the broadband environment and are potentially superior to existing models because they can take full advantage of the digital environment. With broadband streams, for example, fast forwarding through commercials can be disabled making it more likely the consumers will watch the spots and possibly interact with them.

Despite growing numbers of prime time television shows being streamed (or pre- viewed) on network web sites, or the increasing popularity of user generated content (UGC), there has been no measurable negative impact on traditional television viewing. Video on PCs and iPods actually is expanding the audience of traditional TV programmes, supported by the fact that total TV usage was at a record high in U.S. households at 8 hours, 14 minutes a day during the 2005-2006 TV season according to Nielsen Media Research data. Household viewing has risen more than an hour a day over the past decade – or more than a half hour more per person. Gerbrandt adds,

Advertisers and programmers using broadband have a unique advantage in the increasingly competitive advertising world. Ad models can be customized and managed in a broadband environment, and interactivity can be embedded into the program in such a way as to enhance engagement which does not take viewers away from the enjoyment of the programme.

Broadband Video Advertising Models: There is a general consensus that viewers prefer short web-served ads, though the market is split between 15- second and 30-second pre-rolls per program segment. Furthermore, because broadband video offers levels of interactivity and viewer engagement not possible in a traditional TV spot, that argues for a higher CPM. But television – especially the ad-supported kind – works according to a very different revenue model, and systems such as broadband streaming and downloading, could represent a new frontier to be explored and exploited. However, the posting of copyrighted content to web sites still presents challenges that remain to be litigated. About the Broadband Consumer: Broadband access across the US has reached critical mass and is having a clear impact on user behaviour. According to Scarborough Research broadband consumers tend to have high speed web access virtually 24/7 – at work, at home and increasingly across an array of portable devices such as laptops, PDAs and mobile phones. While only about nine per cent of US adults report spending 20 hours or more a week on the Internet, this number nearly doubles, to 17 per cent, among those with broadband access at home. There is a strong correlation between education and Internet access, and the same holds true for broadband connections. Of the roughly one-third (33 per cent) of U.S. adults reside in households without any Internet connection, 69 per cent have only a high school degree or less. The comparable percentage for those in broadband households is one-third or 33 per cent. Of all US adults, almost a quarter (24 per cent) have a college degree or greater. This number increases to 35 per cent among adults with broadband Internet access at home. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of those with post- graduate degrees have an Internet connection, and most of those have a broadband connection. Broadband consumers are upscale: According to Scarborough’s findings, 17 per cent of consumers have an annual household income of $100,000 or more, compared to 28 pr cent of those with broadband connectivity. Less than a quarter (21 per cent) of all consumers live in homes worth $300,000 or more; but the figure is 30 per cent for those consumers with broadband in their household. There is a clear generational divide in broadband adoption. The 18-34 demographic represents 34 per cent of those with broadband connectivity in their household. Though consumers 55+ are less likely than their 18-34 or 35-54 year- old counterparts to be broadband customers, broadband penetration among this older age group will likely increase. The 35-54 demographic is currently most likely to have home broadband access (45 per cent).

3.1. Free TV sustainability of advertising model

3.2. Mass vs. focus

3.3 Opt in / opt out/push/pull

3.4. Consumers empowered

3.5. EPG and Search engines

3.6. Avatar appeal

3.7. Scaling up/ down

3.8. Branded content

3.9 Recommenders

3.10. Immersion

3.11. PVR

3.12. Forecast Growth

PWC said in its annual Entertainment & Media report, published on Tuesday, that it  expects the advertising sector to grow from $10.7 billion to $13.5 billion between 2007 and 2011, or at a compound growth rate of 4.8 per cent.

– The Age July 31 2007

Government:

4.1. Policy development in complex environment

4.1.1. MP’s comprehension

4.2. Regulation for what? – Purpose (market/outcome)-Means-TV content or Internet

4.3. Local regs force global solutions

This globalisation approach by consumers will speed up the merging of television broadcast and on line services. (e.g downloading of series to hard drive devices etc)

4.4. Merging old craft with new-experience

4.4.1. Experience

4.5. National Boundaries

4.6. Public Service Broadcasting (campfire)

4.7. Net Neutrality

4.8. Security

4.9. Meaning of Australian Content

4.10. Berlusconi Syndrome

Financial:

5.1. Capitalisation

5.2. Structures

5.3. Terms of Trade

5.4. Government

5.5. Ownership

Ownership:

6.1. ACCC Issues

6.2. New content aggregators

6.3. Market Failure

6.4. Search Engines

6.5. Changed refs with government

6.6. Political not structural

6.7. Vertical vs. Horizontal

6.8. Australian Content

6.9. Telcos/Aggregators/Search Engines

Global Network/Ozcontent:

7.1. Cultural threat

7.2. Business Opportunity

7.3. Business (Eu co-opp model – Asian opportunity

7.4. New formula for trade balance and acq/prod. cost difference

7.5. Fragmentation

7.6. FTA

7.7. PSB

7.8. STV

7.9. Distribution

7.10. Development

7.11. Comparative Support Models

Ozcontent Future:

The threat of audience fragmentation is the direct result of exploding demand for content and media in a growing variety of forms, creating a wealth of opportunities for companies that recognise the opportunities that are emerging.

Agile broadcasters, content providers and for that matter any other television company that can redefine the scope, shape and scale of the opportunity to capitalise on the changes will thrive. Those that remain in the past will not survive.

– Television Networks in the 21st Century, Deloitte

8.1. STV

8.2. Traditional- industry structure –indie structure

8.3. New  – indies must drive – new technology drives new creativity drives new tech- as change agent-not rehashed TV-embedded corporate

8.4. FTA/STV – PSB (Barry Cox)- Regionalism (BBC)- As digital take-up driver

8.5. Games as education

8.6. Serious games

8.7. RADIO

8.8. Funding cocktail-Government-Industry-redefining Production/Distribution-Economic arguments and value of distribution-what drives specific forms of content-development as a specific issue

8.9. Audiovisual impacts all areas

Digital content production is becoming a major driver of innovation across content industries and potentially in other industry sectors like education, entertainment and advertising more generally. A number of industry leaders commented on the importance of research and development for digital content and applications and its relationship to innovation for creative and content industries more generally. In this context, the cultural and not-for-profit sectors appear to have an important role in supporting the economic development of the creative industries.

New Business Models:

9.1. Investment –enterprise

9.2. Patterns

9.3. Revenue flows globally (CCL report)

9.4. Producer Networks

9.5. Serious Games –games as education

9.6. Development funding

9.7. Export opps for new media

9.8. Creative hubs

9.9 Long Tail

9.10. Ad Hoc networks

9.11. New Aggregators

9.12. Fundable org.

9.13. National Distribution Policy

Intellectual Property:

10.1. Darknet policing

10.2. Consumers/users drive rights

10.3 Economics

10.4 Ease of payment- effectiveness

10.5 Creative Commons

10.6 Residual IP

10.7 Long Tail issues

Technology:

11.1. PDR/wireless/internet nb. all sticky

11.2. File Sharing

11.3. Ad Hoc networks

11.4. PTV

11.5. Web 2.0 and beyond –mass interaction

11.6. On Line Application/Service delivery

11.7. Wired/wireless

11.8. Metaverse

11.9. Participatory

Disruptors:

12.1. Transformative effects of technologies

12.2. Economic

12.3. Geopolitical

12.4. Environment

12.5 Security

12.6. Technology